Complexity teaching notes – Numbers that fool us
April 2, 2012
One of the basic ideas of modern science is that the laws of the material universe can only be meaningfully understood by expressing quantified measurements. Numerical terms are needed, not just words and stories. The belief was that instead of ordinary sentences we must use mathematical equations.
The values of the measurements at a given starting time are called the initial conditions for that system. The Newtonian, deterministic claim is that for any given system, the same initial conditions will always produce an identical outcome. Life is like a film that can be run forwards or backwards in time.
One thing we have learned is that no real measurement is infinitely precise. All measurements necessarily include a degree of uncertainty. The uncertainty that is always present arises from the fact that all measuring devices can record measurements only with finite precision. To be able to reach infinite precision, the instrument we use should be able to display outputs with an infinite number of digits.
By using very accurate devices, the level of uncertainty can often be made acceptable for a particular purpose, but it can never be eliminated completely. It is important to note that the uncertainty in the outcome does not arise from randomness in the equations, but from the lack of infinite accuracy in the initial conditions.
It used to be assumed that it was theoretically possible to obtain nearly perfect predictions by getting more precise information. Better instruments would shrink the uncertainty in the initial conditions, leading to shrinking imprecision in predictions. The lack of infinite precision was thought to be a minor problem. Well, our belief systems are still mostly based on the idea that very small uncertainties don’t matter.
Possibly the first clear explanation of a very different kind of understanding was given in the late nineteenth century by the French mathematician Henri Poincaré. He was the founder of the modern dynamical systems theory. His claim was that there were systems that followed different laws: the tiniest imprecision in the initial conditions could grow in time. Two nearly indistinguishable sets of different initial conditions for the same system would then result in two developments that differed massively from one another. This is the reason why seemingly random behavior can emerge from deterministic systems with no external source of randomness.
Poincaré was way ahead of his time. His early thoughts gained evidence in 1963, when Edward Lorenz found, by accident, that even computer models of the weather were subject to very sensitive dependence on initial conditions.
Numbers fool us and quantified measurements are very rarely the whole picture. And we can’t go back in time – and stories matter more than we think.
More on the topic: The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature by Iliya Prigogine. 1998. Chaos: Making a New Science by James Gleick. 1987
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The idea of co-working spaces
February 4, 2012
Although work today is primarily digital, most organizations still have a spatial dimension, and most of those spaces have a designated organizational role. Even in the digital age we still think in terms of space. The key thing is that both the organizational structure and space greatly influence the patterns of work. A few years ago, the typical organizational design meant that work was divided into multiple parts that were simply added together to create the product. Individual workers did not need to know much more than what was specific to their individual tasks to complete their jobs.
Today, the results of work are not brought together at the end but are communicated throughout the process. A growing number of people are involved in generating ideas and information and bringing those ideas together in collaborative sense making. Work is interaction. Communication is not talking about work. Communication is work.
There are three archetypes of communication in firms. The first type is communication for responsiveness and coordination. This creates the need for transparency. The right hand knows what the left is doing. The second type is asymmetric following. It is about a Twitter type of information sharing to help people keep up with new developments. The third type is serendipitous inspiration. It is spontaneous and helps people to come upon the unexpected. The third type of interaction often occurs between people who work on different things and draw on different disciplines. These people don’t often meet in traditional work arrangements. They don’t normally have a lot to do with each other.
Most managers will acknowledge the role played by the organizational structure, but few understand that physical space is equally important. Structure and space both influence how we work and where communication takes place when we meet.
The goal is paradoxically to increase the value of work and at the same time save costs. This means that you can expect to see more of the clubhouse type of co-working spaces. Clubs are places where only members and their guests are allowed in. The rooms are defined according to a function, such as eating, reading, and meeting. These rooms are open to all, rather than being assigned to a single worker. You can book a more private room for a specific purpose, but in a clubhouse, you cannot put your name on the door.
Members of future organizations will use these new co-working spaces for networking and for concentrated individual work but they are not going to have spaces to fill with their personal belongings.
Many people bemoan the loss of a personal designated space. However, I believe that they are going to learn to appreciate the value of freedom of choice and the escape from the control system of being seen in the office nine-to-five.
If you are in the middle of a conversation with someone, you seldom pause to talk about the conversation itself. But today, it is time to pause and consider how we work together and where we meet to do that. Although work is digital, we are still going to meet, also physically!
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The inspiration for writing this came from meeting my good friend @elsua face-to-face for the first time a few days ago. Thank you @villepeltola and @sakuidealist
Advice on how to manage off-site workers













